After reclaiming the Serie A title last term, Inter kick off the 2026-27 season at home to newly promoted Monza, while Como travel to Udinese in a double feature on August 22.

Cristian Chivu enjoyed a strong debut campaign with the Nerazzurri, becoming the fifth coach to win the Scudetto in his first season with Inter in Serie A, after Arpad Weisz in 1929-30, Alfredo Foni in 1952-53, Giovanni Invernizzi in 1970-71 (who took over the team in November) and Jose Mourinho in 2008-09.

Napoli won the Supercoppa Italiana last season and finished second in the league under Antonio Conte, but Massimiliano Allegri will be in charge at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona this term.

Allegri's vacancy at AC Milan has been filled by former Manchester United boss Ruben Amorim, while Gennaro Gattuso will lead Lazio in 2026-27 following his departure from the Italy head coach role earlier this year.

Maurizio Sarri takes his experience to Atalanta, though Roma and Juventus have stuck with Gian Piero Gasperini and Luciano Spalletti, respectively.

Venezia and Frosinone gained automatic promotion to Serie A, but can they maintain their top-flight status this season?

Here, using the 10,000 data-led simulations run by the Opta supercomputer, we assess how the 2026-27 Serie A season could pan out.

Inter to face surprise competition in title race

Just as they were last season, Inter are expected to win the Serie A title by the Opta supercomputer.

Inter won the league by 11 points last season, scoring the most goals (89) and conceding the joint-fourth-lowest (35), with only Como (29), Roma (31) and Juventus (34) conceding fewer.

Chivu has strengthened his backline for their title defence, bringing in serial winner John Stones on a free transfer following his departure from Manchester City.

Stones won 17 major trophies during his time in Manchester, including six Premier League titles, and he will be keen to add a Scudetto to his collection, with Inter given a 35.1% chance of retaining their Serie A crown.

The centre-back has also made a strong start to life in Milan, scoring the winner on his debut in a pre-season friendly against Real Betis.

Inter's closest competitors, according to the Opta supercomputer, are set to be Roma, Como and Juventus.

Roma have not won Serie A since the 2000-01 season, when Fabio Capello's side, which featured the likes of Gabriel Batistuta and Francesco Totti, beat Juve to the title.

Gasperini had a positive first campaign in charge of the Giallorossi as they qualified for the Champions League for the first time since 2017-18, also surpassing the 70-point mark for the first time since the same season.

Roma have also made key moves in the transfer market, extending Paolo Dybala's contract for another year and making Donyell Malen's loan move from Aston Villa permanent.

Among players who have finished a Serie A season with fewer than 20 appearances in the era of three points per win, only Zlatan Ibrahimovic (15 goals in 19 appearances in 2020-21) has bettered Malen's 14 goals in 18 matches last season.

While Roma have a 12.7% chance of winning the league, Fabregas' Como have a 13.6% probability of lifting the Scudetto.

Como's confidence will be high after a 4-1 win over Cremonese on the final day of last season saw them achieve Champions League qualification for the first time in their history.

A potential title charge will be boosted after star player Nico Paz agreed to stay on with the club for another year, delaying what seems to be an inevitable return to Real Madrid.

Paz directly contributed to more goals than any other midfielder in Serie A last season (18), leading the way in goals (12) and providing the joint-second-most assists (six).

Juventus, meanwhile, missed out on the top four in 2025-26 after winning just one of their final five games of the campaign; it was the first time Spalletti had finished outside the Champions League places since finishing sixth with Roma in 2008-09.

However, the Italian knows how to win this league, having claimed the Scudetto with Napoli in 2022-23, and the Bianconeri have bolstered their squad with the signing of promising teenager Kerim Alajbegovic and the return of Randal Kolo Muani.

The Opta supercomputer has given Juventus an 11.4% chance of winning Serie A in 2026-27, while Napoli (7.5%) and Atalanta (6.8%) have outside chances to finish top.

It would be a dangerous move to rule out Napoli following the appointment of Allegri; only Giovanni Trapattoni (seven) has won Serie A more often than Allegri (six).

Milan face tough battle for Champions League spot

The race for the Champions League positions in 2025-26 went down to the wire as Como leapfrogged both Milan and Juventus on the final day of the season to finish fourth.

All 20 teams have at least a 0.8% chance of clinching a spot in UEFA's premier competition, though the Opta supercomputer has four clear favourites for the positions.

Inter, Roma, Como and Juventus have been backed to qualify for the Champions League, with the Bianconeri given a 47.8% probability of making the top four.

Napoli are outside that group of top-four favourites, but they have a 38.3% chance of retaining their place among Europe's elite clubs.

A key factor in Napoli's potential success in 2026-27 will be the fitness of Kevin De Bruyne, who missed much of last campaign with a thigh injury.

De Bruyne has recorded 156 assists in Europe's top five leagues since his debut in such competitions (2012-13); he has provided at least five more assists than any other player in that time (Lionel Messi is second with 151).

Atalanta struggled in their first season without Gasperini at the helm since 2015-16, finishing seventh in Serie A under Raffaele Palladino after Ivan Juric was sacked last November.

However, with Sarri now in charge of La Dea, the Opta supercomputer has given Atalanta a 34.9% likelihood of finishing in the top four.

Milan will still be reeling from their defeat to Cagliari on the final day of last season, which saw the Rossoneri drop out of the Champions League places.

Aside from the arrival of Amorim, Milan have made another big statement after signing Goncalo Ramos from Paris Saint-Germain for a club-record fee.

The 25-year-old scored 45 goals in 131 appearances for the Ligue 1 club, though he started only 54 of those matches, while he scored once and assisted twice in a pre-season win over United.

The Opta supercomputer has given Milan a 30.8% chance of qualifying for the Champions League, while Lazio (14.3%) and Bologna (14.6%) are also contenders to finish in the top four.

Can the promoted teams survive?

Monza gained promotion to the Italian top flight via the Serie B play-offs; they drew 2-2 on aggregate with Catanzaro in the final but were promoted due to their superior league position.

However, Monza were relegated in 43% of the Opta supercomputer's simulations, the most of any side in the league.

They do have a familiar face in attack as former Milan and Fiorentina striker Patrick Cutrone has completed a permanent move from Como.

The former Wolves man has scored 28 goals and provided nine assists in 169 Serie A appearances across his career, bringing plenty of experience to the Monza squad.

Frosinone are also one of the most likely teams to go down at 40.6%, while the last spot could be fought between Venezia (33.7%) and Lecce (34.3%).

Venezia's hopes of avoiding an immediate drop back to Serie B will lie on the shoulders of Akor Adams, who signed from Sevilla this summer.

Among Sevilla players last season, Adams led in goals (10), direct goal contributions (14) and shots (63), while also providing the joint-second-most assists (four).

The Nigeria international has already played a key role in the Coppa Italia for Venezia, scoring twice and assisting once in a win over Modena.

Lecce, meanwhile, avoided relegation last season after winning three of their last four games and losing just one of their last six (W3 D2).

Lecce scored the third-fewest goals in Serie A in 2025-26 (28), but they have added Willem Geubbels to their frontline to try to solve that issue.

The Frenchman has made a strong start to life at Lecce, scoring the only goal in a 1-0 pre-season win over Monopoli.