The Community Shield is about to kick off, with last season's Premier League champions Arsenal facing off against the Premier League runners-up and FA Cup winners Manchester City. According to historical data compiled by the BBC, there is no strong correlation between the outcome of the Community Shield and the subsequent Premier League season.

Since the inception of the Premier League in the 1992-93 season, only 8 of the 34 Charity Shield or Community Shield winners have gone on to win the league title.

Five of these occurred within the six years between 2005 and 2010.

Manchester City were the most recent team to achieve this in 2019; prior to that was Ferguson's Manchester United in 2011.

Of the past 15 Community Shield winners, only one team eventually crowned league champions that season.

Since 1992, teams that lost the Community Shield have actually won the league title more often in that season, a total of 10 times, including Manchester City for three consecutive years from 2021 to 2023.

Last year, Crystal Palace beat Liverpool and ultimately finished 15th, although they later won the Europa Conference League. Liverpool also performed poorly domestically, finishing fifth.

47% of subsequent Premier League champions did not participate in the Community Shield, which is 16 out of 34 times, such as Arsenal in the 2025-26 season.

Among the remaining 53%, which is 18 out of 34 times, the Community Shield winner ranked higher in the league that season than the losing side.

Including Crystal Palace, FA Cup winners have won 8 of the last 12 Community Shields, whereas this only happened 5 times in the previous 22.

In the Premier League era, there have also been 3 instances where neither the league champions nor the cup winners managed to win the Community Shield.

Arsenal in 1999 and 2023, and Manchester United in 2010, participated as Premier League runners-up and defeated the then double winners.

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