AC Milan's expected goals in the Turin derby came as a shock: just 0.11, even lower than their worst match last season.

"Anything you say can and will be used against you": this is a classic line from arrest scenes in American films. Amorim certainly didn't face legal trouble, but after the draw with Juventus in Turin, some fans dug up the coaching philosophy he proudly displayed in his debut: controlling matches, attacking football, intense pressing — perfectly aligned with AC Milan's DNA.

After witnessing this performance, which leaned toward "beautiful football," those principles were used to question the coach. Amorim clearly understands this better than anyone, and acknowledging mistakes is the best way to address criticism. But regardless of outside commentary, AC Milan created almost no threat at the Allianz Stadium, and the numbers tell the story: an expected goals figure of 0.11 measures the probability that shots convert into goals.

The figure is laughably low, while Juventus's expected goals were 1.59. Expected goals can effectively reflect attacking threat and sometimes expose matches with high possession but little actual action — but that wasn't the case for AC Milan in Turin. For a team like AC Milan, deliberately constructed and coached with attacking intent, expected goals should typically not fall below 1. For this reason, 0.11 is a major warning sign for Amorim. For comparison, in the match against Torino, AC Milan's expected goals were 2.15; against Venezia, it was 2.21. Looking back at last season under a completely different tactical approach, even their worst match — a loss to Sassuolo — recorded 0.24 in expected goals. Furthermore, no other match dipped below 0.6.


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