According to an analysis by The Guardian, there is nearly a 50% chance that a newly appointed manager will be sacked before the end of the season. Of the last 50 permanent Premier League managers to leave their posts, 22 served for less than a year.

Data companies estimate that six of the eight managers most likely to be the next Premier League manager to depart were appointed in 2026. Managing a football team is inherently a high-risk job. Before the end of the 2026-27 season, it is inevitable that some of the 11 managers appointed earlier this year will be sacked, even if they are not the first to leave.

Vítor Pereira, Graham Potter, and Thomas Frank, who managed Wolves, West Ham, and Tottenham Hotspur respectively in 2025, were all still in position at the start of last season but were replaced by mid-February of this year. Over the past 10 years, 25 newly appointed managers who began the season in their new roles failed to complete the entire season.

Due to frequent managerial changes, the situation is fraught with uncertainty, making predictions almost impossible. Nottingham Forest will face Liverpool at Anfield on Saturday; they have a strong recent record at Anfield, having won both of their last two visits. The first of these two victories came in September 2024, which was Liverpool's only Premier League defeat in the first 30 games of a season they eventually won. Arne Slot mentioned this defeat in interviews for months afterwards, showing how much it troubled him. However, the situation is different now. The last time Forest won at Anfield, they were managed by Nuno Espírito Santo, and the second time by Sean Dyche. After Dyche was sacked, Forest has already appointed their second manager. Even considering the constantly unpredictable nature of Evangelos Marinakis, the Premier League in 2026 remains shrouded in an atmosphere of rapid managerial turnover.

This raises an interesting question. In the past, when we examined matchups between two teams, we might have focused more on their direct head-to-head record; should we now focus on the managers? The tactics they bring and how quickly they implement their ideas increasingly influence the outcomes of high-stakes encounters in English football.

Nottingham Forest's manager, Oliver Glasner, is a prime example, particularly as he is among the managers bookmakers consider most likely to be the next Premier League manager to be sacked. He has an excellent record against Liverpool, winning 4 of their 7 meetings, including a penalty shootout victory in the Community Shield. However, he has won only 3 of 21 matches against Manchester United, Manchester City, Arsenal, and Chelsea combined; two victories against Manchester United, one against Manchester City, and no victories against Arsenal or Chelsea. Glasner has cracked the tactical code of Slot, but he has yet to do so against most other top-club managers.

However, Glasner has a poor record against Liverpool's new manager, Andoni Iraola. In their five meetings between Crystal Palace and Bournemouth, Bournemouth won twice and drew three times, keeping four clean sheets. When the teams drew 3-3 at Selhurst Park last season, Bournemouth led 2-0 and 3-2, suggesting that Iraola's dominance over Glasner could have been even more pronounced.

It is difficult to say how much this dominance will factor in this weekend. When Liverpool drew 2-2 away at Newcastle United in their last match, they resembled the fragile team under Slot from last season. The new manager still has much work to do.

Glasner's problems against Bournemouth may not improve this season. He and Marco Rose are the two managers who have faced each other most frequently, with 16 encounters. Rose holds a significant advantage with 9 wins to 2 defeats, making it one of the most common head-to-head records among the 190 possible pairs of current Premier League managers.

Currently, just over half of these potential matchups have actually taken place, totalling 97. Although Premier League managers have collectively faced nearly 1,700 different opponents, several managers with no English managerial experience were appointed this summer, meaning many pairings have yet to materialise. Rose and Glasner will face each other for the first time outside their native Germany and Austria in mid-November when Forest visit the Vitality Stadium. However, before then, many of this summer's newly appointed managers will meet for the first time.

It is not until Matchday 9 that such a fixture does not appear for the first time; the same is true for only Matchday 16 and Matchday 27 throughout the season. Nevertheless, the matches in these two weeks will still feature newly appointed managers facing Roberto De Zerbi, who was himself only recently appointed. A total of 110 matches, or 28.9% of all fixtures, are currently scheduled as head-to-head encounters between two managers appointed in 2026.

Iraola's first season on Merseyside is framed by such matches. Liverpool will face newly appointed managers in their first 6 games, and 7 of their final 10 matches will also be against new managers. The question is whether these opposing managers will still be in their positions come spring.

Traduit par IA.

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