AC Milan's expected goals (xG) data in the Turin derby was shocking: just 0.11, even lower than their worst match last season.

"Anything you say can and will be used against you": This classic line from arrest scenes in American films comes to mind. Amorim is certainly not in legal trouble, but after the draw with Juventus in Turin, some fans dug into the coaching philosophy he proudly outlined at his unveiling: dominating possession, attacking football, intense pressing, perfectly aligned with AC Milan's DNA.

After witnessing this "more entertaining football," those same ideas are now being used to question the manager. Amorim is well aware of this, and acknowledging mistakes is the best way to defuse criticism. But regardless of outside opinion, AC Milan created virtually no threat at the Allianz Stadium, and the statistics tell the story. The data is damning: an xG of 0.11 measures the probability of shots being converted into goals.

This figure is extremely low, while Juventus's xG was 1.59. Expected goals effectively reflect offensive threat and can sometimes expose high possession teams that lack genuine attacking action—though that wasn't the case for AC Milan in Turin. For a team like AC Milan, deliberately built and coached with an attacking mindset, xG typically should not fall below 1. Therefore, 0.11 is a major red flag for Amorim. For comparison, against Torino, AC Milan's xG was 2.15; against Venezia, it was 2.21. Looking back at last season, when the tactical approach was fundamentally different, even in their worst performance—a loss to Sassuolo—the xG was 0.24. Beyond that, no other match dipped below 0.6.


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