On June 29 at Beijing time, all 3 matches are in the knockout stage, with intense competition. From a -1 handicap perspective, psychological bias in the Netherlands vs. Morocco match is very prominent.

For Match 074, Brazil with a -1 handicap against Japan, the backing rate for handicap loss is only 20%, but it corresponds to a 39% probability, a deviation of -19%. Japan's upset win is severely undervalued, and the handicap draw also shows a 10% deviation.

For Match 075, Germany with a -1 handicap against Paraguay, 69% of the funds are backing handicap win, but the probability is only 50%, an excess of 19 percentage points—severely overheated. The backing rate for handicap loss is only 6%, but corresponds to a 26% probability, a -20% deviation, making Paraguay's upset value extremely high.

Match 076 shows the Netherlands with a -1 handicap against Morocco displaying the most exaggerated deviation—a 26% backing rate for handicap loss corresponds to a 51% probability, a deviation as high as -25%. A handicap draw with 42% backing corresponds to only 26% probability, an excess of 16 percentage points, marked as "major deviation." The market severely overestimates the Netherlands' handicap strength, and Morocco's upset win is the most undervalued outcome among all three matches.

All three handicap matches show characteristics of strong favorites being overheated for handicap wins while their handicap losses are severely undervalued. Among them, the Netherlands' -1 handicap against Morocco has the most extreme -25% deviation. The underdog outcomes for Paraguay and Japan also carry significant upset value.

Traduzido por IA.

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