AFC teams fail to reach the World Cup round of 16 for the third time this century

Nine ships set sail simultaneously; seven failed to weather the first storm—the group stage waves. The remaining two drifted to a reef near the shore; one was swallowed by the final wave, while the other, stranded in a crevice of the reef, lost to the coin it had tossed itself. None reached the lighthouse of the Round of 16—but none arrived there merely carried by the waves. Each had rowed its way here on its own.

Asia’s football foundations—such as youth development infrastructure, player pool size, footballing environment, physical attributes, and financial support—are far behind those of Europe and the Americas. Japan’s women’s national team is world-class and can compete with top European and American sides, while Japan’s men’s team ranks among the world’s second tier—still short of true elite status. Australia and Japan have charted two distinct paths for Asian football: if a nation lacks Australia’s physical dominance, it must adopt Japan’s large-scale, technically oriented youth development model. Otherwise, even if China’s national team qualifies for the World Cup in the future, it will likely suffer heavy defeats and exit in the group stage against European, South American, and African opponents.

Popping champagne right at the start is exactly like this.

Frankly speaking, only Japan has the strength to reach the Round of 16, but their draw is unfavorable—only a few group runners-up will directly face a group winner, and unfortunately, Japan drew Brazil’s group.

The first round was because they weren’t prepared and hadn’t found their rhythm yet.

The AFC’s record of failing to win a single knockout-stage match—except for South Korea’s 2002 run—continues unabated; the best Asian teams have managed is reaching penalty shootouts in 2010 (Japan), 2022 (Japan), and 2026 (Australia). Moreover, since the tournament expanded from 32 to 48 teams, both Saudi Arabia and Iran have never advanced beyond the group stage under either format (in 1994, Saudi Arabia qualified from a 24-team group stage to reach the Round of 16—the first knockout round under the 16-team format; under the 32-team format, Saudi Arabia’s best result was finishing third in its group, while Iran has failed to advance from the group stage in every edition). Japan and Australia have likewise never progressed beyond the first knockout round. Thus, expansion has made qualification—and surpassing previous best performances—even more difficult for Asian teams.

They don’t know how to play knockout matches, but now failing to play knockout matches means they can’t advance to the Round of 16.

Here’s a cold joke: The Japanese want to win the championship?

Among Asian women’s football teams, Japan won the 2011 FIFA Women’s World Cup and currently ranks between 4th and 8th place in Asia—depending heavily on draw luck. Asian men’s basketball is actually even more lopsided than men’s football: aside from Australia, no other Asian team can compete with even mid-tier European sides. In women’s basketball, China and Japan remain competitive, though their performances are inconsistent—sometimes yielding strong results. For example, Japan finished second at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, and China took silver at the 2022 FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup; the United States remains the undisputed champion.

If South Korea adopted a youth development model similar to its own—sending prospects abroad for training to produce stars like Son Heung-min and Lee Kang-in—and supplemented the squad with players from second-tier European leagues (e.g., the English Championship), the K League, and the Chinese Super League, then—as hosts and with a compatriot serving as FIFA Vice President (Chung Mong-joon)—reaching the semifinals would be feasible. Otherwise, under the previous 32-team format, South Korea could only occasionally advance beyond the group stage (having participated in 12 World Cups, they advanced from the group stage just three times: 2002, 2010, and 2022; notably, in 2022, Portugal fielded a heavily rotated side against South Korea in their final group match, allowing South Korea to win and qualify—raising questions about whether this outcome was influenced by then-South Korean head coach Paulo Bento, who is Portuguese). South Korea’s Asian strengths—physical fitness, strength, aggressive pressing, and attacking intensity—fade entirely when facing second-tier or higher European, African, or South American teams within a 64-team World Cup field. Moreover, South Korea struggles with ball possession and control, employs a narrow range of attacking patterns, and thus becomes a textbook candidate for early group-stage elimination. This footballing model works reasonably well in Asia (though South Korea has won the AFC Asian Cup only twice—in 1956 and 1960), but it is ineffective on the World Cup stage.

In cup competitions, rankings are irrelevant—only the champion matters—because the disparity between opponents is too great. Hence the adage: “In cup tournaments, there’s only one winner—the champion.” Strangely, Japan always faces extremely strong opponents in the knockout stages!

For the past decade, the AFC has focused its attention primarily on the Middle East; in Southeast Asia, only Japan and South Korea remain competitive. Asia—the world’s largest continental confederation—has the weakest football, the most wars, and the highest levels of poverty. For Asian football to reach the Round of 16 remains an unattainable goal.

Among Asia’s three major ball sports, volleyball is now the only one preserving some dignity. China, Japan, and South Korea are all major and strong sporting nations—yet only Japan has delivered a commendable performance in this edition. South Korea has achieved nothing; West Asian football remains unchanged. After the World Cup concludes, it may be time to separate East Asian and West Asian football—and the same likely applies to the three major ball sports…

As for the East Asian zone, Japan, South Korea, and Australia are competing for a spot; in the West Asian zone, Saudi Arabia qualified in 1994, and since then no team from that zone has advanced.

So what’s the point of expansion? Club América has abandoned all dignity just to make money.

This time, it doesn’t count—previously, it would’ve been the Round of 16. The expansion has allowed many weak teams to participate. Let’s revert to a 32-team format. Allowing third-placed teams from groups to advance has led to numerous match-fixing scandals, and watching so many weak teams play is truly painful to behold. Teams like Curaçao, Haiti, Uzbekistan, the Czech Republic, and Tunisia—these underperformers are seriously diminishing the World Cup’s prestige and lowering its competitive threshold.

So close! This was the closest Australia has come to their first knockout-stage win since 2006—another four-year wait awaits.

The AFC is the real minnow.

AFC refunds money—has lost all face