In the latest Ballon d'Or probability predictions from data agencies, Messi rose to first with 40%, Yamal climbed to second, and Kane dropped to third. Apart from these three, no one else has a probability of winning the Ballon d'Or higher than 3%, essentially ruling them out.

Ballon d'Or Probabilities
1-Messi (Argentina/Inter Miami) 40%
2-Lamine Yamal (Spain/Barcelona) 30%
3-Kane (England/Bayern Munich) 17%
(Other candidates have a probability of 3% or less)
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Argentina
England
Bayern Munich
Barcelona
Spain
Messi
Kane
Inter Miami CF
Yamal
FIFA World Cup
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