According to Sky Sports, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur will kick off the new season with renewed optimism and revamped squads, all while being free from the distraction of midweek European competitions. Historical data suggests that both teams could see an average increase of 16 points in the new season.

The report states that Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur are entering the new season with fresh expectations, updated squads, and without the distraction of midweek European matches.

Chelsea has appointed a new head coach, broken the British transfer record, and adjusted its team-building strategy, adding several experienced players to last season's youngest Premier League squad.

Tottenham Hotspur, on the other hand, has established a new playing style, no longer needs to worry about relegation, and Roberto De Zerbi has been granted a more flexible transfer budget.

Both teams missed out on European competitions due to poor domestic league performances last season, which means their Premier League points and league rankings are likely to increase.

First, we define the scope of the study. Sky Sports looked back to 2008, counting instances where "Big Six" teams participated in UEFA competitions the previous season but failed to qualify for European competitions the following season.

Then, the league points and final standings of these teams for two consecutive seasons were compared. The sample size of this study is limited, but it can still provide a historical reference for the new season.

Chelsea's experience is perhaps the most representative case. In the turbulent 2015/16 season, Jose Mourinho was sacked, and Guus Hiddink took over until the end of the season. Chelsea ultimately finished tenth in the Premier League that season, failing to qualify for any European competition.

The following season, led by Antonio Conte, the team's points surged by 43 from the previous season, winning the league title with 93 points, seven points ahead of Tottenham Hotspur.

There are clear similarities in the current situations of the two teams. In the 2025/26 season, Chelsea experienced turmoil, Maresca departed, Liam Rosenior briefly took over, and then Callum McFarlane coached for the remainder of the season, with the team ultimately finishing tenth.

Points and ranking are expected to rise.

So, how many more points can a Premier League team expect to gain when not participating in European competitions?

Since the 2008/09 season, the "Big Six" have had 11 instances where they went from participating in European competitions in one season to missing out the next. In 10 of these 11 cases, the team's points and league ranking improved, a success rate of 91%.

Liverpool was the only team whose points and ranking both declined, dropping from sixth place with 58 points to eighth place with 52 points in the 2011/12 season.

Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur have similar pasts.

Beyond the Conte era, under the current ownership, Chelsea has also experienced this situation. The team led by Mauricio Pochettino saw an increase of 19 points, finishing sixth in the league in the 2023/24 season. Tottenham Hotspur, under Ange Postecoglou, ranked one position higher than Chelsea.

In the 2022/23 season, the season Conte departed, Tottenham Hotspur reached the Champions League round of 16 but performed poorly in the Premier League, ultimately finishing eighth with 60 points.

The following season, without the burden of European competitions, Tottenham Hotspur earned 66 points, improving their ranking to fifth.

Across all 11 qualifying cases, teams averaged a 16-point increase in the season they missed out on European competitions; their league ranking improved by an average of nearly five places, with seven cases seeing the team ultimately finish in the top four that season.

Missing out on European competition is just one factor contributing to a team's improved performance, but it is certainly worth noting.

Overall, these clubs are naturally due for a resurgence after a poor league season due to underperformance. Changing managers and investing heavily in new players are also significant reasons for improved team performance.

However, this season, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur will play fewer official matches, reducing rotation pressure. Alonso and De Zerbi will have more complete training weeks, and the schedule between midweek matches and weekend league games will not be as tight.

Considering all these factors, is Chelsea capable of contending for the title this season?

Chelsea's true strength is difficult to define, referencing the first half of last season under Maresca. When the Italian coach left, the team had 30 points from 19 games; in the latter part of his tenure, the team's form was not hot, securing only one victory in the last seven matches.

Under Maresca, the team's points trajectory ultimately pointed to 60 points. This score would have been enough to secure a Champions League spot. This season, Chelsea can also enjoy the additional benefits of not participating in European competitions.

However, not all team progress can be simply attributed to playing fewer matches. If Chelsea mounts a title challenge, the reasons behind it will include Alonso's coaching, the addition of experienced players to the squad, the performance of Morgan Rogers, or the further improvement in form of players like Cole Palmer.

For Tottenham Hotspur, performance improvements could come from De Zerbi's tactical system, James Maddison's return from injury, or standout performances from newly signed defenders and midfielders.

Manchester United played only 40 official matches last season, which was considered a major reason for the team's significant rise in ranking and securing a Champions League spot.

If history is any guide, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur missing out on European competitions might, surprisingly, have a positive effect.

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