Just over two months on from their heartbreaking defeat to Argentina in the World Cup semi-finals, England are back in action at Wembley Stadium on Sunday.

And their opening game in the 2026-27 Nations League pits them against the team they would have faced in the World Cup final, had Thomas Tuchel's side not retreated into their own penalty area after Anthony Gordon's goal and conceded two late goals to Argentina.

Spain travel to London off the back of their second World Cup win, having held Lionel Messi and company to zero shots through 90 minutes of the final – the first time that has ever occurred – before claiming the trophy through Ferran Torres' extra-time goal.

The top two teams in Group A3 will progress to the quarter-finals next March, but with Croatia and Czechia also lurking, the Three Lions and La Roja will have to be switched on.

Who will get off to a positive start? Here, we preview the game using Opta insights. 

What's expected? 

Saturday's match looks almost too close to call on paper, and the Opta supercomputer is also struggling.

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the predictive model, England were victorious in 33.6% of scenarios.

Spain have the slight edge, with a win probability of 40.2%, with the remaining 26.2% of simulations being drawn.

Spain have won six of their last nine meetings with England across all competitions (D1 L2), most recently triumphing 2-1 in the Euro 2024 final in Berlin.

Their last away game against the Three Lions also ended in a 2-1 victory, at Wembley in the first edition of the Nations League, in September 2018.

Gareth Southgate's England did manage a memorable victory in the reverse fixture of that group, however, with a Raheem Sterling brace and a Marcus Rashford goal sealing a 3-2 triumph in Seville.

But England have only won two of their last 13 games against the reigning World Cup holders, losing nine of those matches (D2).

One of those victories was a 1-0 triumph at home to Spain in November 2011, though, with the other being a 3-2 success in Germany in March 2016.

Tuchel aims to rebuild trust after semi-final collapse

It is now 60 years of hurt for England at major tournaments, with their next shot at silverware coming on home soil at Euro 2028.

And after this year's World Cup, perhaps more than any other edition in recent history, there was a real feeling of what could have been.

England were in a commanding position when Gordon applied the finishing touch to Morgan Rogers' cross 55 minutes into their tense semi-final clash with the Albiceleste in Atlanta. 

They then immediately retreated into their shells, not helped by Tuchel introducing defenders Ezri Konsa, Dan Burn and Nico O'Reilly with his first three substitutions. 

Between opening the scoring and conceding an 85th-minute equaliser to Enzo Fernandez, the Three Lions had just 11.9% possession, the lowest share ever recorded by a leading team in a World Cup match over a period of at least 10 minutes (since 1966) by a team who were leading. Their leading passer in that period was centre-back Marc Guehi, with six. 

Defeat felt inevitable from the moment Argentina levelled, and now Tuchel – who faced stern criticism from supporters and the media – has bridges to build.

A win over the World champions would be a fine place to start, and it should be noted that Tuchel has the best win rate of any England manager to ever lead the team for at least 10 matches, at 77% (P22 W17 D2 L3), while the Three Lions have only averaged more goals per game under Walter Winterbottom (2.8) than Tuchel (2.3).

England have also won 10 of their last 11 competitive home matches (L1), including each of their most recent five without conceding. Only once in their history have they previously won six in a row to nil, doing so between March 2015 and March 2017. 

But after the meek surrender that ended their World Cup dream, fans will want to see intensity and creativity. 

The withdrawals of Declan Rice and Cole Palmer – who scored against Spain in the Euro 2024 final before being overlooked by Tuchel for the World Cup – do not help matters, though Morgan Gibbs-White could now have a chance to impress. His 13 goals in the Premier League this calendar year are the joint-most of any player, alongside Erling Haaland.

Spain out to extend record-breaking run

The mood in Spain's camp could hardly be more positive coming into this fixture, having followed up their World Cup triumph by handing head coach Luis de la Fuente a six-year contract extension.

They are also defending a 38-match unbeaten run in all competitions, winning 29 games and drawing nine in that time. 

It is the longest-ever streak by a European or South American nation, dating back to a 1-0 defeat to Colombia in March 2024, which took place on English soil, at West Ham's London Stadium.

La Roja's last competitive defeat, which came all the way back in March 2023, also occurred in Britain, as they lost 2-0 to Scotland in a qualifier for Euro 2024. England will hope that is a positive omen.

But this is a truly special Roja side, led by Ballon d'Or contender Lamine Yamal but also boasting plenty of other talent across the board – including World Cup Golden Ball winner Rodri and Young Player of the Tournament Pau Cubarsi.

Aided by Yamal's brilliance, Spain also reached the final of the 2024-25 Nations League, eventually going down to Portugal on penalties following a 2-2 draw in the final.

Spain's last five Nations League matches have seen them both score multiple goals and concede multiple goals, which is the longest run by any nation – in any tier – since the tournament's inception in 2018.

La Roja have reached three of the last four Nations League finals, also losing to France in 2020-21 and beating Croatia on penalties in 2022-23. Excluding spot-kicks, they have lost just one of their last 18 matches in the competition (W10 D7).

And during the last edition of the Nations League, only Cristiano Ronaldo (eight goals) outscored Mikel Oyarzabal (four). 

The Real Sociedad forward has 26 goals involvements across his last 25 international appearances (19 goals, seven assists), a run that started with him scoring the winner against England in the Euro 2024 final.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

England – Jude Bellingham

While England's attack is spearheaded by one of Yamal's Ballon d'Or rivals in Harry Kane, Bellingham has been the Three Lions talisman this year, netting seven goals in 10 appearances for England.

David Platt was the last midfielder to find the net more often for them in a single calendar year, back in 1993 (eight).

Spain – Lamine Yamal

Barcelona have scored 31 goals in their first seven games in LaLiga this season, with only Sevilla in 1940-41 (40) ever bettering their tally at this stage.

And Yamal has been a key part of their sensational attacking start, with only team-mate Raphinha (12) bettering his seven goals in the competition and only Kylian Mbappe (41) having more shots than his 38.