Going into last week's Old Firm derby in the quarter-finals of the Scottish League Cup, all the pressure appeared to be on Rangers.

Already trailing their rivals by five points at the top of the Premiership, having also missed two shots at European football this season, Derek McInnes' side needed to make a statement in his first derby at the helm.

And they did exactly that, with Dan Neil netting twice either side of Kevin Kelsy's terrific volley as the Gers triumphed 3-0 in front of a jubilant Ibrox Stadium.

Just seven days later, the first Premiership Old Firm clash of the season takes place at Celtic Park, with Martin O'Neill's team now facing criticism from sections of their own fanbase.

But who will take the bragging rights this time? Here, we delve into Opta's best insights to preview the game.

What's expected? 

The Opta supercomputer is siding with Celtic this weekend, with home advantage on their side in a season which will see away fans barred from all Old Firm derbies.

Across 10,000 data-led simulations conducted ahead of the game, Celtic won 51.9% compared to Rangers' 23.6%, with the remaining 24.5% finishing level.

And in Opta's 2026-27 season predictions, Celtic are overwhelming favourites to retain their Premiership crown for a sixth straight campaign.

They have a 75.38% chance of winning the title, compared to Rangers' 9.95%.

But, following last week's cup success, Rangers have the chance to achieve a rare feat.

In the storied history of this fixture, there are only two previous instances of Rangers facing Celtic in back-to-back games across all competitions and winning both, doing so in September 1960 under Scot Symon and April 1998 under Walter Smith.

Celtic won the last Premiership matchup between the sides by a 3-1 scoreline in May, however. That victory ended a six-game winless run for the Bhoys in Old Firm league games (D3 L3), and they have won six of their last eight such matches at Celtic Park (L2).

Celtic enter this game on a 13-match winning streak in the Premiership, dating back to a 2-0 loss to Dundee United in March. 

It is their longest winning run going into an Old Firm derby in the Premiership since March 2017, when they were on a 22-match streak. Curiously, the Hoops have only won on two of the six previous occasions when they have faced Rangers in the league while on a winning run of 13 or more matches (D1 L3).

A victory here would mark the first time they have won 14 or more consecutive league games since that aforementioned 22-game sequence under Brendan Rodgers in 2017 – that run ended with a 1-1 home draw with Rangers.

Celtic questions mount, but are O'Neill's side improving?

The nature of last week's loss at Ibrox has sparked frenzied conversations around Celtic's displays, with some pundits and fans suggesting they are fortunate to have won all six of their Premiership games this season.

Four of the Bhoys' victories have come by single-goal margins, with the exceptions coming against Kilmarnock (5-1) and Aberdeen (3-0).

Off the back of last week's loss at Ibrox, captain Callum McGregor described Celtic as "a team of individuals", saying many players in the Bhoys' ranks were guilty of "wanting to do their own thing".

And things got worse on Thursday as they started their Europa League campaign with a dispiriting 3-1 defeat to Ferencvaros. They have now lost five of their last seven home games in major European competitions (W2), conceding 2.4 goals per game in those matches.

But for all the negativity, the underlying data suggests Celtic are performing at a higher level this term than they managed in 2025–26.

In 2026-27, Celtic are posting better per-game figures in the Premiership for goals (2.33 to 2.22), expected goals (3.13 xG to 2.03), shots (22.5 to 16), goals conceded (0.5 to 0.91) and expected goals against (0.89 xGA to 0.97) than they managed across two spells under O'Neill's management last season. 

Amid a few murmurs of discontent, a fast start could be crucial to helping Celtic set the tone. Five of Celtic's six home league goals this season have come in first halves, with their only second-half strike at Celtic Park coming from Benjamin Nygren versus Dundee on matchday one.

McInnes eyes another statement result 

When McInnes' Rangers tenure started with one point from their opening two Premiership matches (1-1 versus Dundee United, 1-2 against Hibernian), alarm bells were ringing.

And when, having already dropped out of the Europa League qualifiers by losing to Jagiellonia Bialystok, they were also denied a place in the Conference League proper by Jablonec, things looked grim for the former Hearts boss.

In fact, there were plenty of parallels with Russell Martin's short and unhappy reign last season, as he failed to recover from a dire start and was sacked in early October.

However, a run of four straight Premiership wins has steadied the ship somewhat, and last week's derby win has put some early credit in the bank for McInnes.

This weekend, he could become only the second Gers manager to win his first two Old Firm derbies in charge of the club, after Graeme Souness in 1986. 

Much like Celtic, Rangers have had to survive plenty of hard-fought affairs in 2026-27, with all four of their Premiership wins coming by a one-goal margin.

And if they are to keep pace with their neighbours all season, improved finishing could be the key.

Rangers have scored just seven goals from 128 shots in the Premiership this season, with their conversion rate of 5.5% being the lowest in the division.

It will also be interesting to see whether McInnes opts to stick with a winning team, as Rangers have used more players (26) and made the joint-most starting XI changes (18) of any side in the Premiership this term.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Celtic – Kasper Hogh

Hogh was withdrawn just past the hour mark after turning in a disappointing performance last Sunday, and there have been calls for the former Bodo/Glimt striker to lose his place in the starting lineup.

He will be determined to do better next time out, and his three Premiership goals this season (from 2.99 xG) are the second-most, after Josh Fowler's four for St. Johnstone.

Rangers – Dan Neil

Neil's brace last Sunday was the third scored by a Rangers player in an Old Firm derby in 2026, after Youssef Chermiti netted twice in two different matches in the second half of last season, in a 3-1 away win in January and a 2-2 home draw in March.

The previous brace scored by a Rangers player against Celtic came back in April 2023, as James Tavernier netted twice in a 3-2 defeat.