TA used a series of data points to illustrate that Tottenham's true strength is superior to what their early season performance suggests, and their current low league position does not reflect the real underlying quality of De Zerbi's squad. Tottenham signed 10 players in the summer transfer window, and it's rare for a large influx of new recruits to integrate immediately. Moreover, with only 5 matches played, the role of chance is magnified. Tottenham often produces fluid play but frequently falters due to possession errors or misplaced passes, indicating a very tense team mentality. Securing their first league win of the season would help overcome this psychological hurdle and improve their finishing in the final third.

Being at the bottom of the league table is never a comfortable position, and this feeling is intensified during international breaks.

With no matches for a few weeks, fans of teams like Tottenham, currently at the bottom of the Premier League, have nothing but their team's struggles to dwell on, and players don't have the opportunity to turn things around on the pitch.

However, stepping back temporarily from the intense Premier League schedule also allows for a more objective and thorough examination of Tottenham's current situation, free from knee-jerk reactions and emotional media commentary. This calm perspective reveals optimistic signals: the team's current low league position does not reflect the true underlying strength of Roberto De Zerbi's squad.

Firstly, the 5 matches already played offer limited evidence. In the same period last season, under new manager Thomas Frank, Tottenham was third with three wins, one draw, and one loss. But this proved to be misleading. In the remaining eight months of Frank's tenure, the team's play was dull, and when he was sacked in February, Tottenham was only five points above the relegation zone.

Beyond coaching issues, the team's struggle against relegation last season exposed severe squad weaknesses. Therefore, Tottenham's summer spending of over £300 million (totaling £398 million) to sign 10 players was absolutely necessary.

De Zerbi will undoubtedly appreciate these reinforcements, but integrating a large number of new players all at once is rarely seamless. The Italian coach has changed his starting lineup 13 times in the first five matches, more than any other club, as he refines this new squad to fit his tactical system.

Tottenham starting lineup changes

When Tottenham suffered a 0-3 defeat to Brentford in the season opener, key new signings Savinho and Omar Marmoush had not yet joined the squad. De Zerbi also hadn't found the ideal position for Matheus Fernandes, deploying him in an awkward attacking midfield role instead of the versatile No. 8 position where he thrived last season at West Ham United.

But even amid instability and poor results, there have been bright spots in Tottenham's play, most notably sustained defensive solidity.

Since the heavy defeat to Brentford on August 22, the team's expected goals against (xGA) in the subsequent four matches was only 4, a statistic bettered only by their North London rivals Arsenal (the reigning champions). These four matches included two goalless draws against Everton and Nottingham Forest. In the last home match against a clinical Aston Villa, Tottenham lost 2-3 at home, with Villa's Emiliano Buendía scoring a stunning 30-yard strike.

De Zerbi has continued his work strengthening Tottenham's defense since taking over late last season. The chart below shows the team's 10-match rolling expected goals (for both attack and defense). Since taking charge in March, Tottenham's underlying defensive metrics have improved markedly and are now better than at any point under Frank or the earlier Postecoglou.

Tottenham non-penalty expected goals

The defensive improvement owes more to De Zerbi's possession-dominant style of play, which limits opponents' scoring chances, than to individual defensive performances. This season, Tottenham's average possession is 60.5%, second only to Man City and Brighton. The team has 154 touches in the opponent's box, only 4 fewer than Man City.

The heatmap shows that Tottenham dominates most areas of the pitch, employing a high-pressing style similar to Arsenal and Man City.

Premier League teams' pitch control heatmap for the 2024-25 season

However, the possession advantage has not consistently translated into attacking threat, and Tottenham's build-up play often appears labored. This is partly due to their match situation—they are the only team in the Premier League yet to take a lead.

The core principle of De Zerbi's tactics is well-established: to invite opponents to press high. Defenders circulate the ball in their own half, drawing opponents forward, then quickly exploit the exposed spaces. Teams now understand this approach, and once they take the lead, they rarely fall into this trap, instead forcing Tottenham to break down deeper, more compact defenses.

Tottenham has faced low blocks during attacking build-up 214 times, a number surpassed only by Man United, who themselves struggle to penetrate compact defenses.

Against this backdrop, it's unsurprising that Tottenham has managed only 1 fast break shot this season.

The inability to take the lead often signals a team in crisis, but with only 5 matches played, the impact of luck is magnified.

Premier League teams' match state distribution over time in the 2024-25 season (red: trailing, white: drawing, orange: leading)

Last season, even Burnley and Wolves, who were deep in the relegation zone, led for 9% of their total match time. Tottenham themselves, despite their struggles last season, had a leading percentage of 21%. It's hard to imagine their leading percentage remaining at 0 for the entire season.

In the matches against Villa and Everton, Tottenham started well but then faded, failing to capitalize on the opportunities created by their early dominance. The team's shot conversion rate is a poor 2.9%: with 5 expected goals, they have only scored 2 actual goals.

Once they regain their scoring efficiency and take the lead, opponents will be forced to push up, creating space for the quick counter-attacks De Zerbi desires. The signings of Savinho and Marmoush are almost tailor-made for this tactic, as both are agile dribblers skilled at penetrating defenses through runs in behind.

With the support of these talented new signings, Tottenham has attempted and successfully completed more dribbles than any other Premier League team, but most of these dribbles occur when trying to break down compact defenses. Once space opens up in matches, the team's ability to bypass defenders can create threats in open areas, rather than running into a wall of players.

Even if match situations frequently lead Tottenham to face low blocks, this is an unavoidable challenge in a Premier League season. De Zerbi's team needs to demonstrate more tactical creativity in the final third and reduce their tension. This season, the team has played only 1 through ball, and only 11 since the start of last season, ranking last among teams that have competed in both seasons.

As analyzed by TA reporter Ahmed Walid, Tottenham often produces fluid play but frequently falters due to possession errors or misplaced passes, revealing a tense team mentality. Securing their first league win of the season would help overcome this psychological barrier, and a more relaxed game atmosphere would also improve their finishing in the final third.

Even with the current bleak situation, Tottenham fans can still see signs of hope. Given time, these signs have every chance to develop into a team with an exciting style of play, and more importantly, a competitive one.

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