According to the Manchester Evening News, Manchester United leads the Premier League this season with 182 touches in the opposition box. They rank second in shots on target, but their conversion rate is lower than teams like Brighton and Chelsea.

Manchester United has had a disappointing start to the season, but there is no discussion yet about manager Carrick's position.

The old adage "the league table doesn't lie" is becoming increasingly untenable as data gains importance in football. If it can occasionally be misleading after 38 matches, then after just 5 matches, the table is full of gaps and holds little predictive value.

Many in the industry prefer to wait until at least 10 matches into the season before reading too much into the standings. Too many factors can create false impressions early in the season, especially following a World Cup summer.

Manchester United certainly hopes this is the case. As the international break arrived, marking the first pause in the season, Carrick's team had managed only 5 points from 5 games, placing them 12th.

For Manchester United, the biggest problem is that their fixture list hasn't actually been that demanding, yet Carrick has consistently emphasized that the team has been let down by fine margins. Everton's two stunning goals and Manchester City's winning goal, which was arguably questionable, are prime examples.

Certainly, Manchester United will scrutinize the data to see if the statistics align with what is visible on the pitch. CEO Omar Berrada and Football Director Jason Wilcox will both be paying close attention. Following INEOS's acquisition, Manchester United has invested heavily in its data and AI department, led by Michael Sansoni, former head of data for Mercedes F1.

The University of Southampton graduate is certainly capable of helping Manchester United construct a narrative of "bad luck" and providing justification for "backing Carrick will pay off." The 45-year-old manager is not yet fighting for his job, but pressure has clearly mounted this season.

However, Carrick's assertion that Manchester United has been unlucky in the details this season has merit. Although they already trail Manchester City by 10 points, the underlying data tells a more positive story.

No Premier League team has recorded more touches in the opposition box than Manchester United this season, with 182, and they rank second in accurate passes. This indicates that Carrick's possession-based philosophy is gradually taking shape in the team.

Manchester United also ranks second in shots on target, but their conversion rate of 7.1% is significantly lower than several nearby rivals: Brighton 16.8%, Manchester City 19.1%, and Chelsea 13.9%.

In terms of expected goals (xG), Manchester United ranks fourth with 9.9, but has only scored 8 actual goals. Based on their xG difference, they should be 3.3 goals ahead of their actual tally, yet they sit at zero, suggesting Manchester United is underperforming in attack while overperforming defensively.

Carrick hopes these statistics will eventually normalize. As the season progresses, the final league table should increasingly reflect what the underlying data suggests.

This is likely the message that analysts in the data lab at Old Trafford will convey. The current concern is that as pressure mounts and morale dips, these positive statistical signals might gradually diminish. For now, however, Manchester United still has reason for optimism and is prepared to back Carrick.

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