Our top tipster Lewis Jones, aka Jones Knows, provides his analysis and betting insight ahead of the weekend's Premier League action.

Brentford vs Chelsea, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports

Chelsea have been vulnerable to exactly the sort of physical, second-ball and set-piece football Brentford specialise in. There is a softness about them which was exposed by Hull City, who scored from a corner when Emi Martinez failed to deal cleanly with a delivery. Brentford will be licking their lips and getting their knives and forks ready for a set-piece feast.

Out of the 17 ever-present Premier League teams since the start of last season, Chelsea have conceded the second most goals from set pieces at 0.5 per game and the Bees have hit them via this method in previous fixtures, amassing a per-game average of 0.73 for expected goals from set pieces from the past three meetings.

Chelsea look there for the taking with Brentford on offer at Evens in the draw no bet market.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Tottenham vs Aston Villa, Saturday 12.30pm

There is a striking amount of evidence pointing towards a low-scoring game.

Tottenham's problems in front of goal are well documented - zero scored in four Premier League matches to a backdrop of just 0.95 expected goals per game. Roberto De Zerbi's teams averaged 1.92 goals scored per game at Brighton and Marseille, so to average just 0.73 per game since taking the Spurs job showcases a worrying trait for the environment at the club. There seems a "mental block" holding this football club back.

Villa have scored just one goal themselves this season in the Premier League. Both teams have genuine attacking-process problems, but for different reasons. Tottenham have possession and territory without enough penetration while Aston Villa are struggling to generate much shot volume at all.

Under 2.5 goals at 10/11 with Sky Bet looks too good to turn down.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Under 2.5 goals (10/11 with Sky Bet)

Brighton vs Arsenal, Saturday 3pm

Fabian Hurzeler has yet to taste victory over Mikel Arteta across five meetings but his Brighton team have certainly bloodied the nose of the champions. In games that have produced plenty of needle - even between the managers - Brighton have won four of the five expected goals battles which points towards this being a tricky encounter for the visitors despite their perfect start to the season.

I'd be wary of taking the 7/10 with Sky Bet for an away win, with the double chance for Brighton at 11/10 much more appealing.

Olivier Boscagli should be lining up against Bukayo Saka, who looks back to his dangerous best with the ball. The winger has drawn 13 fouls in three Premier League games, with three of those fouls leading to a booking for the opponent. Boscagli is 5/4 with Sky Bet to make two or more fouls and is 4/1 to be carded - a price given further edge by his two previous cards in two games with Arsenal.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

Everton vs Ipswich Town, Saturday 3pm

Nightmare. Absolute nightmare.

We were on Leif Davis to score or assist the week before last, then decided not to follow him into the Crystal Palace game last weekend - and, of course, he went and did both. That's betting for you. It makes us resilient.

I'm happy to go back in.

Davis is playing a role that makes him far more than your traditional left-back. He is getting extremely advanced for Ipswich, constantly pushing into the final third and becoming a genuine attacking outlet. His two goals and an assist in the opening four Premier League games underline just how involved he is.

There is also a lovely little momentum angle here. If we include pre-season, Davis has scored four times in his last seven games. That is some output from a player starting from left-back.

The shot-on-target price is the interesting bit. The 100/30 with Sky Bet feels big for a player whose positioning means he is regularly getting himself into attacking areas.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: Leif Davis +1 shot on target (100/30 with Sky Bet)

Newcastle United vs Hull City, Saturday 3pm

There is something about a team getting absolutely battered that makes me interested in opposing them in their next game. It is not just the physical exertion of chasing shadows for 90 minutes - there is a psychological hangover that can linger.

Newcastle certainly got a beating at Leeds. They were 4-0 down before eventually losing 4-1, with Matthias Jaissle admitting afterwards that the result was "difficult to digest" and that his young side could not match Leeds' physicality.

When looking at teams conceding four or more goals in a Premier League game, excluding matches against Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool, their record in their next game is horrible. Just one win from the last 15, alongside five draws and nine defeats.

That makes Hull or draw at 11/8 with Sky Bet interesting.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2

Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports

James McAtee is a fantastic bet here to be carded.

To put the case simply: a player who is playing in a Premier League midfield - the most physical and duel-heavy major league in Europe - that has made seven fouls in his last two games, picking up a yellow card in both, should not be 13/2 with Sky Bet to be carded again. It's a classic case of a positional change with a player not being factored into the market yet as McAtee is doing a fine job of replacing Elliott Anderson's hustle and bustle in the Forest midfield. Big price.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS' BEST BET: James McAtee to be carded (13/2 with Sky Bet)

Bournemouth vs Liverpool, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports

Narrative is always worth listening to in football betting. Andoni Iraola returning to Bournemouth with Liverpool feels like one of those occasions where the emotional temperature at the Vitality Stadium could be turned up a few degrees.

Iraola spent three seasons on the south coast, taking Bournemouth to their highest-ever Premier League finish before moving to Anfield this summer. He returns on Sunday for the first time.

There are some interesting historical parallels, too. Managers returning to former clubs for the first time can find the occasion awkward. David Moyes lost at Everton with Manchester United, Graham Potter lost at Brighton with Chelsea, while Thomas Frank drew at Brentford with Tottenham, Brendan Rodgers drew at Swansea with Liverpool and Mauricio Pochettino drew at Southampton with Tottenham.

These results highlight the unusual dynamics of these fixtures. The home crowd knows the manager, the players know the manager and there is an extra edge to the occasion.

Bournemouth are 19/10 with Sky Bet for the win.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

Leeds United vs Crystal Palace, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports

Betting on Leeds when the price is right is a wise strategy, because more often than not, you know exactly what you're getting. Organisation, aggression, a threat from set pieces and a team where everyone looks comfortable playing the same way.

And they simply don't lose many games.

Leeds have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League matches dating back to March, winning six and drawing six. That's the fewest defeats of any side in the division over that period. Their latest performance was another reminder of the formula, too, as they dismantled Newcastle 4-1 at Elland Road.

But it is the first-half numbers that really catch my eye.

Across their last 19 games, Leeds have conceded just two goals before half-time, keeping 17 first-half clean sheets in that sequence. That is an extraordinary level of consistency and it tells you something about how well-drilled they are from the first whistle.

Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have already conceded 11 goals in their opening four league games. So I'm going back to the Leeds factor. The Leeds/Leeds half-time/full-time price of 7/4 with Sky Bet appeals.

SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1

Manchester City vs Sunderland, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports

There is one Premier League opponent still missing from Erling Haaland's hit list...Sunderland.

He has scored against 24 of the 25 teams he has faced in the competition with the Black Cats the only exception. That makes this feel like a particularly dangerous fixture for Sunderland, especially given the ridiculous form Haaland is currently enjoying.

He has scored in each of his last three Premier League appearances and nine times across his last nine league games. His latest effort, the winner against Manchester United at Old Trafford, was another example of that ruthless efficiency.

So, rather than taking the short price on Haaland to score on its own, I want to add a couple of conditions to boost the price.

Haaland to score in a Manchester City win and under 3.5 goals is 11/8 with Sky Bet.

Sunderland can be awkward opponents to break down while City have generally been winning games without necessarily turning every victory into a goal-fest.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0

Fulham vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports

Another poor result before the extended international break would not be ideal for Michael Carrick, who is already finding himself in the familiar cycle that has engulfed Manchester United managers in recent seasons. United have won just one of their opening four league games and then threw away a 2-0 lead against Brighton in midweek.

The Evens about an away win is tempting, particularly because Fulham will make this an open game. That should suit United's attacking players, but I'm more interested in a goals-based angle.

These two sides have had the joint-most touches in the opposition box in the Premier League this season, with 139 each. That is a useful indicator of the attacking intent we could see at Craven Cottage.

And one player stands out.

No player has touched the ball more in the opposition box than Josh King, who has 30 such touches this season. He has also scored twice from 11 shots, with five of those efforts finding the target.

That makes the 11/8 with Sky Bet for both teams to score and King to have one or more shots on target particularly appealing.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-3

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