The Opta supercomputer has delivered its match predictions ahead of the latest weekend of the 2026-27 Premier League season, as the table starts to take shape.

By hook or by crook, Manchester City and Arsenal both have maximum points on the board.

Refereeing body Pro Ref admitted Erling Haaland's winning goal against Manchester United in Sunday's derby should not have stood, due to a missed offside against Enzo Fernandez, but Enzo Maresca will not mind after City's fourth straight win.

Arsenal received arguably their sternest test of the season to date last week, but David Raya's penalty save proved crucial as they beat Sunderland 2-0.

Behind that familiar duo, Leeds United and Hull City are both flying high and still unbeaten in the Champions League spots, as they look to maintain their momentum going into the international break.

Matchday 5 sees fixtures take place on Friday, Saturday and Sunday across a bumper weekend.

Ahead of what should be another intriguing group of Premier League fixtures, here are the Opta supercomputer's match predictions.

BRENTFORD V CHELSEA

There is Friday night football to begin the MD5 slate, and it is a west London derby at the Gtech Community Stadium as Brentford face Chelsea.

The Bees are one of seven teams yet to lose in the league this season, though they have drawn three straight games since beating Tottenham on MD1.

In fact, 10 of Brentford's last 14 Premier League games have been drawn dating back to last season (W2 L2). Opta's predictive model forecasts a 24.3% chance of a draw here, with Chelsea's 40.3% win probability making them slight favourites over the Bees (35.4%).

Brentford and Chelsea are the only two sides to open the scoring in all four of their top-flight games this term. However, in 2026-27 overall, the team that has scored first has gone on to win 58.3% of games (21/36).

If Chelsea are to get back to winning ways, Joao Pedro could be key – assuming he is fit enough to play after withdrawing from the Brazil squad. He has more goal involvements than any other player in the competition this season (six – three goals, three assists).

TOTTENHAM V ASTON VILLA

Saturday's early game is a huge one at the bottom, as two winless teams who had lofty pre-season expectations face off.

Tottenham are at home to Aston Villa, with both teams still without a league victory. The hosts have not even scored in the league in 2026-27, and though Villa ended their own goal drought versus Nottingham Forest, they still fell to a 2-1 reverse.

It is the first time Spurs have ever started a league campaign with four goalless games, with only Crystal Palace in 2017-18 (seven matches) ever enduring a longer wait for their first goal in a season. While they did score against Liverpool in the EFL Cup, they were knocked out after a 3-1 loss.

Villa, meanwhile, could start a season with five winless matches for the fourth time, after 1919-20 (first seven), 1964-65 (seven) and 2025-26 (five), though they did beat Coventry City 3-1 in the EFL Cup on Wednesday.

Spurs (3.45) and Villa (3.39) rank 19th and 20th in the Premier League so far this season for expected goals (xG), so their attacking woes are reflected in the underlying metrics.

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations run by the supercomputer, 24.7% finished level, making this the most likely draw of the weekend, with Spurs (49.5%) favoured for victory over Unai Emery's men (25.8%).

BRIGHTON V ARSENAL

At the other end of the table, Arsenal will look to keep their 100% start rolling against a Brighton team that have impressed in the season's early weeks.

The Seagulls were given a standing ovation from a portion of Coventry's fans after humbling the Sky Blues 5-0 away from home last week. Their 13 league goals this season are the most of any team, and having also beaten Villa 4-0, they are just the 10th team to win two of their first four games in a Premier League season by 4+ goals.

Brighton enjoyed a rousing 3-2 comeback win over Man Utd in the EFL Cup, but are unlikely to get the same level of attacking joy against Arsenal's rock-solid defence.

The Gunners have won each of their last nine top-flight games dating back to last season, conceding just two goals in the process.

Only twice before have they won 10 straight in the competition – 10 between March and May 1998 and 14 between February and August 2002, with both of those runs also incorporating a title win.

Mikel Arteta's men have faced just 2.7 expected goals against (xGA) in the Premier League this term, almost a third of which (0.8) came from Sunderland's missed penalty on MD4. Their 55.6% win probability is the best for an away team this week, with Brighton at 21.3%.

EVERTON V IPSWICH

Arsenal cruised into the EFL Cup fourth round with a 4-2 win over Ipswich Town in midweek, and the Tractor Boys' next assignment is a trip to Everton.

Following their 3-2 triumph at Palace last weekend, Ipswich are already halfway (two) to their win total from their last top-flight campaign in 2024-25 (four). It took them until their 16th game, in mid-December, to hit two wins that season.

But with a 22.2% win probability, they are outsiders against a still-unbeaten Everton side (54.6%), albeit one coming off the back of three straight league draws.

The Toffees are coming off the back of three straight Premier League draws, but this is still their longest unbeaten run at the start of a league campaign since 2020-21 (W4 D1).

NEWCASTLE UNITED V HULL CITY

Hull City were unable to leave Stamford Bridge with all three points last week, but a 2-2 draw with Chelsea kept their unbeaten start to the campaign going ahead of a visit to Newcastle United.

The Tigers could now become the first newly promoted side to avoid defeat in their first five games since Portsmouth in 2003-04. A win would make them the first promoted team to take 10+ points from their opening five matches since West Ham in 2005-06 (10).

And, having gone unbeaten in three trips (W2 D1), Hull are the only visiting team to play more than one Premier League game at St. James' Park without ever losing.

Newcastle will be desperate to bounce back from Monday's chastening 4-1 defeat at Leeds United. The Magpies have faced more shots than any other side in the top-flight so far this season (76), while only Palace (8.2) have a higher xGA total than their 7.6.

Despite those concerning defensive figures, Matthias Jaissle's side are favourites with a 58.5% win probability, compared to Hull's 20.6%.

NOTTINGHAM FOREST V COVENTRY CITY

Saturday's late kick-off is a Midlands derby at the City Ground as Nottingham Forest take on Coventry City, who remain pointless and goalless.

Only Palace in 2017-18 (first seven) have ever lost more consecutive matches to nil at the start of a Premier League season than Frank Lampard's Sky Blues, who are only assigned a 19.5% win likelihood.

Since the start of 2022-23, 38 different managers have taken charge of 25+ top-flight games, and Lampard's win ratio of 12.1% (P33 W4 D8 L21) is the second worst in that time, only ahead of Kieran McKenna (10.5%, P38 W4 D10 L24).

Forest, meanwhile, earned their first win under Oliver Glasner at Villa Park last time out, but the Austrian's next task is to transform their dismal home form.

Since last Christmas, the only ever-present side to pick up fewer home points than Forest (11) are Spurs (eight), but 58.5% of pre-match sims resulted in them taking three points and the bragging rights.

BOURNEMOUTH V LIVERPOOL

Onto Sunday, both Bournemouth and Liverpool have both drawn three of their four Premier League games so far, but Andoni Iraola will be determined to get back to winning ways against his former club.

He is given a 44.2% chance of leading the Reds to victory, given Bournemouth have lost 14 of their 18 top-flight games against them (W3 D1), though all of Liverpool’s defeats in the fixture have come away from home.

There is a 24.2% chance of another stalemate at the Vitality, while Bournemouth have drawn 13 of their 23 league matches in 2026 (W8 L2), the highest ratio by a team in a single year in the history of the English top-flight (56.5%).

Bournemouth, whose hopes of a first league win under Marco Rose sit at 31.6%, have failed to win any of their four league games this season (D3 L1), despite leading in all of them.

LEEDS UNITED V CRYSTAL PALACE

Leeds United (53.3%) head into the weekend third in the table and having made their best Premier League start since 2001-02, with Crystal Palace (23.2%) their next opponents.

And Leeds have won four of their last six top-flight home matches against Palace, including this exact fixture 4-1 last season.

If they are to get another victory on the board on Sunday, Dominic Calvert-Lewin will be key – he has scored in each of his last five home league appearances, including two against Newcastle last time out.

Palace, by contrast, have just one league win this term, and have faced the most expected goals (8.15 xG), conceded the most goals (11), faced the joint most shots on target (26) and allowed their opponents the most touches in their own box (164) in the competition so far this season.

MANCHESTER CITY V SUNDERLAND

Manchester City have a 100% record to protect after their contentious derby win last weekend, while Sunderland are still looking for some consistency, though they made a winning return to Europe, beating AZ 1-0 in the Europa League.

At 73.3%, City are deemed the most likely winners of MD5 by the supercomputer, and they are unbeaten in all 14 of their Premier League home games against Sunderland (W12 D2), last losing in January 1998 (0-1).

City have lost just two of their last 30 league matches (W20 D8), and they are looking to win their first five games of a top-flight campaign for the fifth time.

Sunderland have not won any of their last 17 games against teams starting the day in the competition's top two (D4 L13), and are only given a 10.6% chance of ending that run – they have a slightly higher 16.1% chance of earning a draw.

FULHAM V MANCHESTER UNITED

The last match before the international break will see Manchester United try to bounce back against Fulham, who come into this game on the back of a 3-2 win over West Ham in the EFL Cup third round.

United have endured a rocky start to the season, with their total of four points from their first four Premier League games (W1 D1 L2) this season being their joint-fewest in the competition at this stage, along with 1992-93 and 2025-26.

They are expected to earn their second win against Fulham, with a 48.3% win probability, given they have lost just one of their last 21 league games against Fulham (W16 D4).

Fulham are winless in their last 10 home league games against United (D2 L8) since winning back-to-back matches against them at Craven Cottage in 2009.

The Cottagers are enduring their longest winless start (D1 L3) to a league season since 2020-21, when they failed to win any of their first six games, but they will be hoping to turn their 27.5% chance of victory into three points.