Arsenal were Manchester City's closest challengers for the Women's Super League title last season, with Andree Jeglertz's side finishing five points ahead of the Gunners.

But four games into the 2026-27 season, there is already a seven-point gap between the sides, with City boasting the division's only 100% record and Arsenal's title hopes already slipping away.

If Renee Slegers' side are to have any real chance of topping the pile at the end of the campaign, avoiding defeat at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday is surely a must.

Here, we use Opta insights to preview this weekend's headline clash and consult the Opta supercomputer to see who might come out on top.

What's expected? 

The Opta supercomputer is forecasting another victory for the WSL leaders, with City triumphing in 49.7% of the model's pre-match simulations.

Arsenal's win probability is rated at 25%, with the remaining 25.3% of scenarios seeing the points shared.

These sides have proven to be well-matched historically, with City versus Arsenal being one of only two WSL fixtures to see both teams beat the other 10 or more times – the Gunners currently lead their head-to-head record 12-11 (two draws).

In addition, only Chelsea versus Arsenal (32 times), Arsenal against Liverpool (27) and Chelsea versus Liverpool (26) have been contested more times in WSL history than City against Arsenal (25 times before Sunday).

Their last head-to-head meeting, at Emirates Stadium in February, went the way of Arsenal as Olivia Smith scored the only goal in the 17th minute.

But City triumphed when they last hosted the Gunners, exactly one year before this fixture, on October 4, 2025. Iman Beney's 88th-minute strike earned a 3-2 victory for Jeglertz's team, with Khadija Shaw, Kerstin Casparij, Mariona Caldentey and Chloe Kelly also among the goals. 

City have won their home game against Arsenal in six of the last nine WSL seasons (D1 L2), with those matches averaging 3.9 goals each time (21 for City, 14 for the Gunners).

City bid for perfect five

City have previously won their opening five games of a WSL campaign on two occasions, doing so in 2016 (first six) and 2017-18 (first seven).

In the former season, they went unbeaten and beat Chelsea to the title, and in the latter, they finished second following the Blues' own Invincible campaign. 

Of the previous nine teams to start a WSL season with five straight wins, seven have gone on to finish in the top two, with three (City in 2016, Arsenal in 2018-19 and Chelsea in 2024-25) winning the title in those respective campaigns. 

City have made a professional start to their title defence, sweeping aside Birmingham City (3-1), Aston Villa (4-1) and Liverpool (4-2) before battling to a 1-0 win at Charlton Athletic last weekend.

Jeglertz's team have averaged over 3 expected goals (xG) per game so far this term, putting up a tally of 12.2 (only bettered by Chelsea's 12.4) across the first four matchdays, although they have looked a little more vulnerable than the Swede would like at the other end, with three teams posting better xGA figures than their 3.96. 

Their domestic form has been better than their results in Europe this term, having played out a 1-1 Champions League draw with Real Madrid on Thursday, after splitting four goals equally with Bayern Munich on matchday one.

Indeed, home has been where the heart is for City, who have won each of their last 14 home WSL matches.

Only Chelsea – who won an astonishing 22 straight matches on their own turf between March 2022 and February 2024 – have posted more consecutive home victories in the WSL.

This game will represent a landmark appearance for City captain Alex Greenwood, who will hope to celebrate her 200th WSL outing with a victory.

She will become the 10th player to pass the 200-game mark in the WSL, and if she starts, she will claim the record for the most starts made in a player's first 200 outings in the competition, overhauling Gemma Bonner (192).

Drab start piles pressure on Slegers

Instead of kicking on from their runner-up WSL finish last season, Arsenal have endured a drab start that has led to tough questions being asked of Slegers.

Arsenal are only the third team in WSL history to score two goals or fewer, while also conceding two goals or fewer, in their opening four matches of a season. Liverpool previously did so in 2014, while Chelsea replicated the feat in 2018-19 but recovered to finish third.

If Arsenal fail to win on Sunday, they are guaranteed to record their second-worst start to a WSL season through five matches, with their four-point haul in 2014 being their worst-ever. 

And, having failed to win any of their last three WSL games (D2 L1), the Gunners could equal their worst winless streaks in the competition, having previously endured four-match droughts in May 2014 and October 2023.

Arsenal managed a mere 0.79 xG in last week's 1-0 loss at Chelsea, then were similarly lacklustre in attack on Wednesday, as they squandered a 2-0 lead to draw 2-2 with Paris FC in the Champions League.

The bizarre 87th-minute penalty Leah Williamson conceded by picking up a live ball, thinking she was taking a goal-kick, did not help matters, but the Gunners only put up 1.16 xG from open play compared to Paris' 1.44, so the result was hardly unjust. 

And when looking at Arsenal's underlying attacking metrics, it becomes clear that their problem is twofold – they are not creative enough, or ruthless enough when they do generate scoring opportunities.

The Gunners underperformed their xG figures by 4.64 across the first four matchdays of the WSL season (two goals, 6.64 xG), though that underperformance was not the worst in the league – Brighton netted three times from 8.33 xG – and only Everton (0.07) averaged a lower xG figure per shot than the Gunners' 0.9 (level with Aston Villa).

Arsenal's 2.56% conversion rate so far in 2026-27 is truly dismal, given nine of the WSL's 14 teams have found the net with at least 10% of their shots (a group that includes City at 13.64%), and if the visitors are to get their season back on track, their big-name attackers simply must do more.

Alessia Russo, Caldentey, Stina Blackstenius and Kelly are all yet to find the net in the WSL this term, with Russo posting the worst xG underperformance of any player in the division (2.14 xG), although she did get on the scoresheet in Paris in midweek.

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Manchester City – Lauren Hemp

With nine so far, Hemp is the only player to create more chances following a ball carry of at least five metres than Arsenal's Lisa Baum (five) in the WSL this season.

That pair of attackers have also tallied the joint-most shot-ending carries in the division through the first four matchdays (eight each, level with Lauren James), so we could be set for an intriguing duel in the wide areas.

Arsenal – Stina Blackstenius

Given Arsenal's attacking woes, they may need Blackstenius to step up against a team she has enjoyed facing in the past.

Blackstenius has scored (four goals in total) or assisted (two) on each of her last five WSL appearances against Man City.

It is the joint-longest such streak against the Citizens in the competition (alongside Lee Geum-Min), and Blackstenius is also the only player to score three winning goals against City in the WSL.