On October 10, Beijing time (CET), James Sharpe, a renowned Daily Mail journalist, published a column analyzing the significant decline in goals from set plays in the new Premier League season. He observed that referees' strict enforcement of rules against pushing and blocking in the penalty area is changing teams' tactics on set pieces, creating new challenges for Arsenal, which once scored frequently from corner kicks.

The Column

Remember the days when set plays were said to be "ruining football"? Remember when Arsenal scored so many goals from corner kicks that a mural of set-piece specialist coach Nicolas Jover was painted outside Emirates Stadium? Remember when Chelsea paid compensation to Aston Villa to snatch set-piece specialist Austin MacPhee, as if he were a superstar striker?

Can you blame them? Last season, despite a lack of creativity in open play, the Gunners scored a record 19 goals from corner kicks, reclaiming the Premier League title after 22 years. Tottenham Hotspur also scored 18 goals from corner kicks, helping the team narrowly avoid relegation.

But has football really come to this? Packing as many tall players as possible into the box, letting them jostle like they're in a wrestling match, just to see who gets to the ball first?

At this summer's World Cup, FIFA's analysis found that in over 40% of corner kicks, attacking players attempted to block or interfere with opponents. Four years prior, at the Qatar World Cup, this figure was less than a quarter. This means that more than half of goals from corner kicks at the 2026 World Cup would have benefited from blocks and screens by players.

Back to England. Two summers ago, the head of referees Howard Webb promised to crack down on holding and pushing, but that initiative seemed to be quickly forgotten. "Now there's a sense that officials don't really want to intervene in any of these situations," said Everton manager David Moyes last season. Now, the crackdown has truly begun, with referees instructed to penalize any "pushing action that has a clear material impact." Just five weeks into the new season, the changes are quite evident.

Last season, a record 18% of Premier League goals came from corner kicks, the highest proportion in the league's history. For the eight seasons before, open-play goals consistently accounted for between 70% and 73%, but last season this figure dropped to 65%. With the new rules in place, open-play goals now account for nearly three-quarters of the 141 goals scored in the Premier League so far this season. Corner-kick goals currently represent only 9.9% of total goals, the second-lowest figure in Premier League history.

Currently, more than half of the league's teams, including Arsenal and Tottenham, once experts, have not yet scored from a corner kick. Brighton, meanwhile, is thriving in both areas: not only has it scored three corner-kick goals, but it also leads the Premier League for expected goals (xG) from open play.

How much of the reduction in set-play goals can be attributed to stricter refereeing? According to Opta data, the percentage of fouls whistled within 10 seconds of a corner kick rose from 6% last season to 8.1% this season. Among these, fouls for pushing between players also increased from 4.1% to 5.3%. Opta defines pushing as shoving an opponent or holding/pulling an opponent's shirt.

However, none of these fouls resulted in a penalty. Last season, referees awarded 21 penalties within 25 seconds of a corner kick. So far this season, the only penalty awarded for pushing during a set play was against Arsenal defender Ezri Ngoyo. At the time, after a long throw-in into the box, Ngoyo was adjudged to have fouled Sunderland's Dan Ballard, but this decision was later even deemed an error. It seems that subtle movements by attacking players in set-play situations are being curtailed.

However, a deeper analysis of the data reveals that the impact of changes in refereeing standards is not as significant as it appears on the surface. Expected goals from set plays have decreased from 0.76 to 0.72 per match. Based on the first 50 matches of the season, this change equates to a reduction in expected value of roughly two goals. Expected goals from corner kicks have decreased from 0.46 to 0.38 per match, equivalent to a reduction in expected value of five goals.

In fact, the number of shots from set plays has even slightly increased. This indicates that teams are forced to deliver the ball to less favorable positions to attempt a shot, rather than sending it directly into the box for intense scrambles as in the past.

So what's actually wrong with Arsenal? Over the past three seasons, they've led the Premier League in set-play goals. This Saturday at lunch, Mikel Arteta's former "corner-kick kings" will face Leeds United—one of the league's tallest teams on average—yet Arsenal has not scored from set play this season, aside from a penalty. Breaking this deadlock against such an opponent won't be an easy task.

Although the percentage of corner kicks that result in fouls has increased across the Premier League, Arsenal's percentage in this regard has actually decreased. The real problem is that the Gunners aren't creating as many chances as before. Last season, they ranked first for expected goals from set plays and third for shots from set plays. This season, these figures have fallen to ninth and fourteenth respectively.

Even when chances are created, Arsenal has failed to convert them into goals. Gabriel has always been adept at creating threats from set plays, but this season he has taken three shots from set plays without scoring. Given the quality of chances Arsenal has created from set plays, they should have scored two to three goals. Perhaps luck is simply reverting to normal levels. Last season, Arsenal's actual set-play goals were roughly five more than their expected goals.

Earlier, Arteta had already complained about the impact of another new Premier League rule: players are not permitted to dry the ball with a towel before a throw-in. Last season, Ben White and Declan Rice frequently took long throw-ins into the box, leading to several Arsenal goals. "Not being able to use the towel has had a big impact," Arteta said before the season began.

Ahead of Leeds United's visit on Saturday lunchtime, Arteta complained: "You have to adapt to the rules and understand what you can and cannot do. This also opens up other spaces for us to try what we want to do. We want to score goals in different ways. Personally, I think we've played better in the first five matches compared to last year, but we haven't scored goals. That's the reality of set plays."

"At this time last year, we had already scored three set-play goals, two of which came without much difficulty, but the execution we should have made didn't happen. There's an element of luck involved. I think we should have scored more goals this season, but we haven't. If we can maintain this performance throughout the season, the final statistics will look very good."

William Saliba has missed all five league matches so far. Ezri Ngoyo, who is replacing him, needs time to familiarize himself with Jover's tactical setup and team play. Even so, he may not be available to play against Leeds United. Timber, like Gabriel, scored three set-play goals last season, including two against Leeds, but has missed three matches this season due to injury. Arsenal losing two key "chaos creators" at the same time is certainly not good news.

Webb's crackdown could push teams to change their approach. This season, teams are using short tactical corners more frequently than last season. After last season's anomaly, the proportion of goals from open play has also returned to pre-2024 levels.

Perhaps beautiful football is making a comeback after all. And this time, Arsenal can no longer rely solely on "winning ugly."

Tradotto dall'IA.

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