According to The Sun, Paul Quinn, a football finance expert, has proposed a plan for Manchester City involving a £300 million fine and a five-year squad budget cap, without points deductions or expulsion from English football.

The proposal also includes sanctions for those responsible for the fraud. The plan is expected to force Manchester City to slash transfer and wage spending, potentially requiring the sale of key players like Haaland, ending the club's decade of dominance.

Under the plan, Manchester City would not face points deductions or expulsion from the Premier League or English football. If Manchester City were stripped of any trophies, only Liverpool would benefit. The Etihad and other competitors would need to accept the terms without further legal or disciplinary battles.

Legal experts, including King's Counsel Paul Gilroy, have warned that Manchester City could face no sanctions for years, or possibly never. Gilroy believes Manchester City's appeals and sanction procedures cannot be completed this season, with the only hope for swift resolution being an agreement between all parties.

Quinn has long run an Everton-focused podcast and written extensively about Everton's finances. He has now turned his attention to problems affecting other clubs and the football industry as a whole.

Quinn's proposal comprises three parts. The first part calls for the largest fine in Premier League history—£300 million—distributed by the Premier League itself. Approximately £108 million would compensate the clubs most directly harmed by Manchester City's fraud, primarily Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester United, with smaller amounts to Southampton, Chelsea, and West Ham United.

Another £115 million would be an "integrity dividend," distributed among the six clubs mentioned above and other teams that faced Manchester City between the 2013/14 and 2017/18 seasons. The remaining approximately £77 million would go to the English Football League and the English football pyramid system.

Quinn used a formula to calculate points gained through Manchester City's fraud, providing high, mid, and low estimates. Using the more legally defensible low estimate, he suggests Manchester City cost Arsenal a Champions League place in 2016/17 and had a similar impact on Manchester United in 2015/16.

Despite being an Everton supporter, Quinn argues his calculations also support Liverpool winning the 2013/14 Premier League title. He estimates Manchester City should be deducted five points, allowing Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool to overtake them and clinch a record 21st top-flight title. Southampton, West Ham United, and Chelsea would also move up one place in the final standings across these five seasons.

The Premier League has accused Manchester City of concealing £900 million through "sham" transactions over nine years. Manchester City was found guilty of 114 of the initial 115 charges, with the total now rising to 130 charges across six main categories.

Quinn focuses only on seasons 2013/14 to 2017/18 because he believes the Premier League's profit and sustainability rules came into effect in 2013. Before then, Manchester City's owners could inject additional funds directly without breaching rules. Manchester City's problem is that these funds were disguised as sponsorship revenue.

The second part of the plan subjects Manchester City to additional restrictions for five seasons under the Premier League's new squad cost ratio regulations. Top-flight clubs competing in European competitions can spend up to 70% of their revenue on squad costs, which include primarily wages, player amortization, and agent fees.

Quinn proposes reducing Manchester City's ratio to 50% for five years, covering the 2013/14 to 2017/18 period. Based on Manchester City's projected revenue, this would cut their annual squad budget by approximately £150 million, or 25%.

This could mean Manchester City would need to sell key players like Haaland and others, while cutting wages and costs. Over five years, the budget difference between a 50% and 70% squad cost ratio would amount to £883 million, close to the £921 million in "sham" funds identified by the independent disciplinary commission.

Quinn believes Manchester City could still compete for 3rd to 6th place in the Premier League under these restrictions, which opponents may cite as evidence the plan is insufficient. If Manchester City continues to regularly qualify for the Champions League and avoids Premier League expulsion, questions will remain about whether this constitutes fair punishment.

The article notes that nearly everyone agrees those responsible for Manchester City's fraud must face severe penalties. The commission's ruling detailed systematic and deliberate fraud and identified those with knowledge, though their names were redacted in the initial findings.

Additionally, several Manchester City witnesses were accused of providing false information or lying outright. A three-person panel accepted the argument that one individual—believed to be nominal owner Sheikh Mansour—was unaware of these financial manipulations.

Quinn believes those with actual knowledge should face sanctions under Premier League rules, as well as penalties deemed appropriate by the FA and/or an independent football regulator. Sanctions could include lengthy bans and potentially forcing Sheikh Mansour to sell the club.

The article notes Manchester City has adopted a strong position throughout the verdict and lengthy process. For the club to admit wrongdoing and senior management to face consequences would require a significant shift. This becomes even more complex given the individuals involved hold positions in Abu Dhabi and UAE government.

The UAE has threatened to withdraw UK investments following the Manchester City ruling. The article suggests this highlights "sportswashing"—investing in high-profile teams and events to gain influence and power. Individual sanctions fall outside the current commission's mandate, though the commission can pursue compensation settlements.

Premier League rules allow, beyond sports sanctions like fines, points deductions, and expulsion, for "such other sanctions as it thinks fit," which could include Quinn's proposed five-year squad cost reduction plan. Quinn acknowledges no perfect solution exists, but his proposal offers new ideas for resolving the Manchester City case.

Tradotto dall'IA.

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