According to Polymarket prediction market data, Yamal's probability of winning the 2026 Ballon d'Or has reached 44.2%, overtaking Kane's 42.6%. On September 28, Kane had been leading with 53% to Yamal's 33.4%.

The evaluation period for this Ballon d'Or runs from August 3, 2025, to July 19, 2026, and includes World Cup matches. The selection criteria, in order of priority, are personal performance, team achievements and honors, and player conduct and fair play.

Yamal made 57 appearances in the 2025-26 season, scoring 25 goals and providing 20 assists. With Barcelona, he won La Liga and the Spanish Super Cup; with Spain's national team, he won the World Cup. He was also named La Liga's Player of the Season.

Kane made 65 appearances during the same period, scoring 73 goals and providing 8 assists. With Bayern Munich, he won the Bundesliga, DFB-Pokal, and DFL-Supercup; with England, he finished third in the World Cup. Individually, Kane won the Bundesliga Golden Boot and the European Golden Shoe with 36 league goals.

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